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"There are quite a few anti-Trump Republicans, but they are only a minority right now"

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"There are quite a few anti-Trump Republicans, but they are only a minority right now"

– The ex-president Trump has emerged stronger after Super Tuesday and the Supreme Court ruling. Was it the expected one?

– Generally, it was what people anticipated, but maybe not the way it happened. The case centered on the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, which in part says that people who have participated in “insurrection or rebellion” are prohibited from holding various federal offices. This was passed after the Civil War in 1867. The problem with the 14th amendment is that it does not specify a procedure for determining whether someone is ineligible and does not define “insurrection or rebellion.” They were expected to focus on the fact that Trump hasn’t actually been convicted of anything yet (nor are most of the charges exactly insurrection or rebellion). However, the unanimous decision held that only Congress can disqualify a candidate. Although the 14th Amendment does not say who decides, to maintain that it is the power of Congress is to throw the ball away. In general, most electoral decisions are made at the state level and it seems strange that this belongs to Congress. I don’t think any of this matters much electorally. The only States that had tried to exclude him (and only during the primaries) were places where he was not going to win.

– Could we describe Trump’s electoral career as “unstoppable” after the abandonment of former UN ambassador Nikki Haley?

– Even before the Super Tuesday primaries there were no serious obstacles to Trump’s nomination as a candidate. Haley has come forward strongly enough to show that there are plenty of Republicans who don’t like Trump, but it’s clear that they’re only a minority right now. Haley has failed to convince more states, so it has become clear that he had no chance.

– Regarding Biden, he has won all 15 states, but even members of his party recognize that he is “a weak candidate” for Trump.

– Biden’s victory was assured. His only rival, Dean Phillips, is practically a political nobody. There is currently a “vote without commitment” movement in protest of Gaza. He got about 10% of the vote in Michigan, which is where you would expect him to have the most traction (there is a fairly large Arab population). It won’t be a factor in Biden getting the nomination, but it does damage his image. As for dissatisfaction with Biden, the problem is that there is no other candidate against him except Phillips, no one serious decided to run. It’s not clear that there is any consensus candidate that dissatisfied people really want. They are dissatisfied, but there is no alternative.

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